作者信息：
农汇福 中山大学国际金融学院特聘副研究员
陈 杰 上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院投资系主任、教授、博士生导师，不动产研究所执行所长（通讯作者）
摘 要：本文在非线性分析框架和门限面板模型下，基于2000 — 2013 年我国255个地级市面板数据，定量地分析了我国房地产投资对经济增长的影响。实证结果显示：随着房地产投资占GDP 比重、房地产投资占固定资产投资比重的增加，投资对我国经济增长的影响力逐渐下降；而且当房地产投资占GDP 比重和房地产投资占固定资产投资比重同时增加时，投资对我国经济增长的影响力会进一步减弱。本文的研究结果有助于判断未来的房地产市场以及经济发展走势，可以为政府选择和制定未来房地产市场调控政策以应对宏观经济周期的波动提供实证的参考依据。
关键词：房地产投资，经济增长，非线性门限面板模型
Abstract ：This paper presents an empirical model to investigate whether and how real estate investment affects the economic growth under the classical theory of economic growth in China. The non-linear panel threshold regression (PTR) model, which is employed in this paper, describes the share of real estate investment in GDP and the ratio of real estate investment in fixed investment as threshold variables rather than as an explanation variable directly. Based on a Chinese city-level panel from 2000 to 2013, empirical results show that the impact of investment on economic growth decreases when the share of real estate investment in GDP or the ratio of real estate investment in fixed investment increases, and it will further decrease when both the share of real estate investment in GDP and the ratio of real estate investment in fixed investment increase. These results provide guidance for policy-makers to implement macro-control policy in the real estate sector.
Keywords：real estate investment, economic growth, PTR model
文章来源：《城乡规划》2017 NO.5
