城市化新形势下的人口与房地产调控
Population and Real Estate Regulation in the New Situation of Urbanization
作者信息：
许小乐 链家研究院高级研究员
摘 要：目前，我国城市化已经进入城市群阶段，在区域之间流动的人口出现了分化现象，城市圈成为下一阶段城市化的新载体，大城市人口向郊区延伸，未来还会向市中心回流。人口向大城市集聚并非导致“大城市病”的原因，基于管控人口规模为导向的城市人口政策可能降低城市的效率和活力，加大交通拥堵和空气污染的压力，最终的结果可能与政策初衷相违背。政府应顺应城市化发展的新形势，通过市场和技术手段引导人口有序分布；优化产业和公共资源区域合理布局，推动职住平衡；根据人口流动规律，科学地调控房地产市场，满足新市民的居住需求；加强城市圈人口与房地产的协同调控，促进城市圈互联互通；推进城市更新，改善市中心的居住条件；利用大数据实现科学规划和精准管理。
关键词：人口集聚，城市化，城市群，大数据
Abstract ：Nowadays the urbanization process in China has entered a phase of urban agglomeration and the internal migration of population among areas starts to differentiate. Metropolitan areas have become the new carrier of Chinese urbanization. People in big cities flow to suburbs and will return to city centers in the future. Population aggregation in big cities is not the cause of “urban diseases”. Hence, populationoriented policies might decrease the efficiency and vitality of cities, while increasing the pressure of traffic and air pollution, and ultimately running counter to what the polices aim for.Therefore, the policies should comply with the trend of urbanization and guide the orderly distribution of population through the means of market and technology; they should also optimize the rational distribution of industrial and public resources areas to promote the job-housing balance as well as regulate the real estate market scientifically to meet the living needs of the new citizens according to the law of population flow; the government is supposed to promote the connections among metropolitan areas by enhancing the cooperation between population and housing market policies; it should improve living conditions in city centers by urban renewals and realize scientific and accurate planning based on big data.
Keywords：population aggregation, urbanization, urban agglomeration, big data
文章来源：《城乡规划》2017 NO.5
