作者信息： 

谭   静   上海大学经济学院产业经济研究中心讲师、硕士生导师

陈盼佳  上海大学经济学院人口、资源与环境经济学硕士研究生

摘   要：中国经济的“黄金增长”得益于制度红利和人口红利的有效结合，其中的关键点在于城乡劳动力市场的发展。本研究首先系统地分析了中国人口红利的态势，发现中国的人口红利随人口结构的变迁呈现出周期性特征，且区别于20 世纪90 年代的年轻型人口红利。当前我国处于老龄化人口红利期；同时，根据全球各国的面板数据分析，人口老龄化带来的抚养比上升、劳动年龄人口比重下降，与出生率上升、少年儿童比重上升带来的抚养比上升对经济发展的影响显著不同。其次，伴随着产业结构升级以及城市劳动力市场上求人倍率的结构变化，我国将从人口红利阶段进入到相对廉价的人才红利阶段。再次，流动人口的候鸟型迁移特征，促使其在年老时迁回户籍地，这会加剧户籍所在地的养老压力，从而恶化农村劳动力市场的结构。最后，研究指出，将当前劳动力通过基础设施建设等方式固化到经济体中，以应对未来更严重的人口红利消失后的老龄化问题，同时结合土地制度、户籍制度、生育政策改革进一步释放人口红利、激发人才红利，是我国城乡劳动力市场发展的重要目标。

关键词：人口红利，城乡劳动力市场，老龄化，求人倍率

Abstract ：China’s “Golden Age of Economic Growth” has benefited from the organic combination of institutional dividend and demographic dividend, the key point of which is the development of urban-rural labor market. Firstly, the paper analyzes the trend of China’s demographic dividend system and then finds out that China’s demographic dividend shows periodic characteristics with the demographic transition. Other than the demographic dividend in the 1990s, China, at present, is facing a demographic dividend with rapidly aging populations. According to the global panel data analysis, the aging of populations has brought about an increase of the dependency ratio and a decline in the proportion of working-age population, the impact of which on economic development is  significantly different from the impact of the increasing dependency ratio caused by the high birth rate and the proportion of children. Secondly, with industrial structure’s upgrading and the structural changes of the job vacancies-to-seekers ratio in the urban labor market, China will experience the transition from the demographic dividend to the stage of relatively cheap talent dividend. Again, migrants with the same migratory characteristic of birds will return to their hometowns when getting old, which will exacerbate the pension pressure on their registered permanent residence and further worsen the rural labor market structure. Finally, the study points out that an essential goal of the development of China’s urban-rural labor market is coping with the aging crisis with the absence of demographic dividend through the internalization of current labor force into the economy by way of infrastructure construction as well as releasing the demographic dividend and stimulating talent dividend combined with the reform of the land system, household registration system and fertility policy.

Keywords：demographic dividend, urban-rural labor market, aging, the job vacancies-to-seekers ratio

文章来源：《城乡规划》2018 NO.2

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