作者信息：
陈 艳 上海同济城市规划设计研究院规划师
张 立 同济大学城市规划系副教授，中国城市规划学会小城镇规划学术委员会秘书长（通讯作者）
摘 要：农村人口的流出与留守并存，且年龄结构呈现出明显的差异性，影响其城镇化的意愿。本文以生命周期理论为基础，从留守人口和流出人口的双重视角，基于对若干村镇的深入调研，考察了农村人口城镇化选择的生命周期特征。继而指出，除了迁移选择上的年龄分化外，城镇化决策的考量因素同样存在着生命周期效应。一方面，留守和流出两部分人口的城镇化决策影响因素不尽相同；另一方面，两部分群体内部的决策因素有一定的年龄分化。年轻一代农民工表现出定居城市的强烈愿望；中年留守人口对于乡村生活方式的依赖正逐渐降低而表现出对老家本地城镇化方式的青睐，而中年外出人口的定居倾向有分化；老年留守人口更加倾向于继续在农村生活，老年外出人口可能返乡。文章最后指出，随着一代代农村人口生活观念的转变，从长远来看，农村人口的城镇化选择将有新的变化，且体现出基于年龄的分化。基于“年龄”视角的城镇化意愿研究对今后我们继续思考城镇化模式的差异性，以及制定与当下新型城镇化相关的政策具有重要的启示意义。
关键词：城镇化决策，生命周期，年龄差异，流动人口
Abstract ：The outflow of rural population coexists with staying behind, and the age structure shows obvious differences, which affect their acceptability of urbanization.Based on life cycle theory，this paper investigates several villages and examines the life cycle characteristics of their urbanization choices from the dual perspectives of left-behind population and migrants. It then points out that there are also life-cycle effects in their acceptability of urbanization besides the migration options based on age differentiation. On the one hand, the influence factors of different acceptability of two distinct groups are various; on the other hand, the influence factors within the two groups are affected by their age. The younger generation of migrant workers expressed their strong desire to settle in the city; middle-aged left-behind population’s reliance on rural lifestyles is declining, showing a preference for local urbanization in their hometowns, but there is a distinct tendency toward settling in middle-aged migrants; elderly left-behind people are more inclined to continue living in rural areas, and elderly migrants may return home eventually. Finally, it proposes that the urbanization choices of rural population will have new changes in the long run and reflect the differentiation of ages with the transformation of the concept of life of rural population from generation to generation. The research of diverse choices based on life cycle is significant not only on the reflection of different modes of urbanization, but also on the various policy-making for the newtype urbanization in future China.
Keywords：urbanization choices, life cycle, age variability, migrants
文章来源：《城乡规划》2018 NO.1
