走向韧性：城市综合防灾规划研究综述与展望
Towards Resilience: Review and Prospects of Urban Integrated Disaster Prevention Planning
作者信息
赫磊 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院，高密度人居环境与节能教育部重点实验室副教授，同济大学建筑与城市规划学院科研管理部主任
解子昂 同济大学建筑与城市规划学院博士研究生（通讯作者）
摘要 近年来，受气候变化影响，城市面临的不确定性因素不断增加，风险挑战愈加复杂。“城市韧性”概念的出现，为应对不确定性问题和理解城市复杂系统的发展演变，尤其是为城市规划领域的防灾减灾问题，提供了全新的视角。本文通过分析、总结我国城市综合防灾规划的发展历程和演变逻辑，认为城市综合防灾规划必然走向“演进韧性”；通过进一步梳理城市韧性的理论与实践，指出对城市固有的复杂性认知不足，是现阶段城市韧性研究不能很好地指导规划实践这一困境的根源。基于此，本文认为，韧性理念引导下的城市综合防灾应该引入复杂科学，用复杂网络的理论与研究方法，发掘复杂城市系统的内在关联结构及其发展演化规律，这些将成为我国城市综合防灾规划的发展方向。
关键词 综合防灾规划；不确定性；城市韧性；复杂系统
Abstract In recent years, affected by climate change, cities are facing more and more complex uncertainties and rising challenges. The emergence of the concept of urban resilience provides a new perspective for dealing with uncertainties and understanding urban complex systems, especially for disaster prevention and mitigation. On the basis of reviewing the development process and logical evolution of urban comprehensive disaster prevention planning in China, this paper summarized the characteristics of its development and transformation, and concluded that the new urban comprehensive disaster prevention must move towards evolution resilience. Further combing the theory and practice of urban resilience, this paper clarified the lack of understanding of the inherent complexity of the city, the root of the dilemma where urban resilience is not enough to guide the planning practice at this stage. Based on this, this paper proposed that complex science must be introduced into urban comprehensive disaster prevention under the guidance of resilience concept. It will become the direction of urban comprehensive disaster prevention planning development in China to explore the internal correlation structure of complex urban system and its impact on the network with the theory and research method of complex network.
Keywords comprehensive disaster prevention planning; uncertainty; urban resilience; complex system
来源：《城乡规划》2021 NO.3
